It’s a conundrum which has occupied minds at the DOE’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for some time. Just how much renewable capacity can the US accommodate?
Now one of the most comprehensive studies of its kind finds that onshore federal lands in the contiguous US could technically support over 7,700 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity.
The US has technical potential for 5,750 GW of utility-scale photovoltaics (solar), 875 GW of land-based wind, 130 GW of hydrothermal, and 975 GW of enhanced geothermal generation.
Even with more stringent siting constraints, such as land use for conservation, livestock grazing, recreation and military use, such technical potential equates to 1,750 GW for utility-scale solar and 70 GW for land-based wind.
According to Wood Mackenzie, the US installed the most solar ever in a single year in 2023 (33 GW).
The outgoing Biden-Harris administration has been steadfast in its clean energy drive, from the launch of the Inflation Reduction Act and tax credits in 2022, and CHIPS and Science Act, right up to its last week, announcing $43.7m from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act for projects that expand electric mobility yesterday (15th January).
The IRA has stimulated around $115bn in investment and created around 90,000 jobs, according to data from the Global Infrastructure Investor Association, as the US targets 100% clean energy by 2035.
But the numbers and potential tell only half the story.
Most of US energy (82%) continues to come from fossil fuels according to the Center for Sustainable Systems at the University of Michigan, with renewables accounting for less than 10% (8.8%). While wind and solar are the fastest growing renewable sources, they contribute less than 3% of total energy used in the country.
Of the utility-scale solar and wind projects that have site applications, significant shares are being delayed or even cancelled, according to a recent survey from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
Community opposition to utility-scale renewables has grown in recent years, covering a wide range of business and environmental concerns.
Last year was the first time the number of counties curtailing new solar installations was almost equal to the number of counties adding their first solar farm; wind was worse, with 375 counties blocking new turbine developments.
So alongside building up renewables, the DOE must win hearts and minds.
Between 51-84 GW of renewable energy could be deployed on federal lands by 2035, DOE states, occupying only around 0.5% of total federal land area in the contiguous US. The Department of the Interior has already permitted more than 30 GW of clean energy projects on federal lands.
That level of deployment by 2035, which could entail authorising such projects by around 2030, is enough to provide up to about 10% of the reliable, renewable energy needed to reach Net Zero emissions in the electricity sector; a start, but not nearly enough.
Only 4% (8.9 GW) of currently operating renewable energy generation in the contiguous US is located on federal lands, and the scenarios find that up to 12.5% of total 2035 renewable energy capacity could be deployed.
With domestic energy demand expected to rise, including to support new homes and growing American industries such as advanced manufacturing and data centers, this new analysis shows major opportunities to build on recent progress in deploying renewable energy resources.
US Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm said the DOE report underscores how the federal government can be ‘a leader in building out American-made clean energy on federal lands, ensuring a secure and sustainable domestic energy supply’.
From the White House to grass roots, it promises to be a big year ahead for renewables. All eyes will be on the Republican administration to see if it rows back on the clean energy drive or momentum can be maintained.
Read more on air gases, ASUs and renewable electricity in the February edition of gasworld US magazine
