The UK’s energy transition will deliver a cleaner and less expensive energy system but oil and gas will dominate across the next decade leading to Net Zero targets being missed by 2050, according to DNV’s 2025 UK Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) report.
The independent energy and assurance provider assessed the UK’s trajectory against key government targets: Clean Power 2030, 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and Net Zero by 2050.
The short-term Clean Power 2030 target sets an ambition to decarbonise the electricity system by decade’s end, but DNV forecasts that unabated gas will still generate 12% of UK electricity in 2030 with full decarbonisation not expected until 2035.
While the UK will fall short of Net Zero by 18% by 2050, DNV’s analysis shows substantial progress. By 2050, energy demand is expected to fall by 25% as a result of efficiencies from large-scale electrification.
Renewables will see strong growth, with solar, onshore wind, and offshore wind capacity nearly doubling to 90 GW by 2030. However, this remains 45 GW short of government targets to double onshore wind, triple solar, and quadruple offshore wind.
Under the new NDC, the UK has committed to reducing economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 81% by 2035, compared to 1990 levels. DNV’s projections suggest it will reach only 68%, requiring steeper reductions to meet its pledge.
Hari Vamadevan, Executive Vice-President and Regional Director, UK & Ireland, Energy Systems at DNV, said despite economic and geopolitical challenges, the UK’s trajectory remains positive but emissions remain a major challenge.
CO2 emissions need to fall from 405 million tonnes annually to 155 million tonnes in 10 years. “To put that in perspective, in the last 35 years, we’ve achieved about 50% reduction, and that’s with all the carbon budgets – and now we have to do 62%,” he said.
Low carbon sources are expected to surpass fossil fuels in the supply mix, with the latter falling from 75% of primary energy today to 34% by 2050. However, oil and gas will remain dominant across the next decade, with significant amounts still required to balance energy demand and ensure security of supply.
To address lagging emissions reductions, the UK must accelerate large-scale electrification in heating and transport, alongside scaling carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen infrastructure.
Source: DNV
CCS, dominated by power generation, is benefitting from government investment and will be driven by the expected increase in carbon prices and implementation of tariffs to prevent leakage, but its ramp up will require the availability of sufficient transport, injection and storage capacity.
Frank Ketelaars, Energy Transition Director at DNV, said “We are seeing significant progress on the industrial side, the impact of hydrogen and carbon capture will allow us to reduce emissions by 54%.” But he added that even by 2030, demand met by electricity will only be 20%.
The Environment Agency has opened a second consultation into a permit variation application from Drax Power to incorporate carbon capture at its bioenergy plant near Selby.
Home heating presents another challenge: by 2050, more than half of homes will still use natural gas, with heat pump adoption limited by costs and insulation requirements. Without policy shifts to lower costs, gas will remain dominant for the foreseeable future.
Vamadevan added, “The scale of change can feel daunting, but change happens incrementally and progress is undeniable. To seize the potential economic, environmental and societal benefits ahead, we must turn urgency into actions – scaling renewables and updating grids at pace.”
