On-board carbon capture could be the most cost-effective way to decarbonise shipping and major ports should do more to receive and store carbon dioxide (CO2), according to DNV.
Unveiling the eighth edition of its Maritime Forecast to 2050, DNV highlighted the attributes of on-board carbon capture but acknowledged infrastructure needs building, and ship technology must be further developed and evaluated against costs of carbon-neutral fuels.
Estimated demand for carbon storage from shipping in 2030 is 4-to-76 MtCO2, while the 10 largest announced projects for dedicated CO2 storage have a planned capacity of 7.5-20 MtCO2/year.
The report notes that for the largest ports, dedicated CCS infrastructure for shipping could be built and ‘could contribute significantly’ to decarbonising the industry.
Eirik Ovrum, Principal Consultant in Maritime Environmental Technology, said, “Today we are in an unprecedented era of technological exploration in shipping, and with an evolving regulatory landscape, it’s crucial to know and constantly re-evaluate your options.”
Yet large-scale supply of alternative fuels remains elusive with 93% of the world’s fleet still running on conventional fossil fuels.
In a fireside chat with Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO Maritime, DNV, Arsenio Dominguez, Secretary-General, International Maritime Organisation (IMO), said, “I’m not undermining the challenges but we need to shift and be more optimistic about the opportunities. There are actions, such as with energy efficiency, we can take before we welcome all the alternative fuels. This is a transition, it’s not going to be an overnight shift.”
On the pivotal issue of carbon pricing, he said, “You won’t get a final decision at the next upcoming MEPC (Marine Environment Protection Committee) meeting. But we are making progress.”
IMO is targeting full-scale decarbonisation ‘by or around’ 2050, a 20% emissions reduction by 2030, and a 70% reduction by 2040.
Under the EU ETS which took effect in January, shipping companies are required to buy and surrender emission allowances for TtW CO2 emissions within EU and European Economic Area (EEA) ports, emissions on voyages between such ports, and 50% of emissions on voyages into or out of them.
The EU’s FuelEU Maritime Regulation coming in 2025 is imposing a ‘well-to-wake’ GHG intensity requirement on energy used during a year, effectively forcing the use of qualified low GHG fuels.
Source: DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050
LNG shipping growth
LNG-fuelled ships now represent 6.7% of total tonnage in operation (totalling 1,239 ships), and 36% of those on order. The number of LNG bunker vessels serving the existing fleet of LNG-fuelled ships grew from 42 to 53 ships over the last year, with new vessels sized to fit the fuel carriage capacity of large ships, the report states.
The order book shows that 11 new LNG bunker vessels will be delivered in 2024. According to DNV’s Green Shipping Corridor Database (as of June 2024), there are currently 60 green shipping corridors announced with various degrees of maturity.
These initiatives include plans for operation on low GHG emission intensity fuels and are expected to be important for developing bunkering infrastructure/energy hubs for new fuels.
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