President-elect Donald Trump lambasted the Green New Deal as a “scam” and has committed to boosting fossil fuel production – but in both the climate and energy sectors his incoming administration may need to tread conciliatory paths.
Climate change is global and inaction will impact every country – annually it already costs the US around $150bn.
“Soberingly, that is likely an underestimation,” writes Jorge Gastelumendi, Senior Director of the Atlantic Council’s Climate Resilience Center.
“The Trump administration will find that it cannot overlook these concerns. If the United States steps back on its climate leadership, it will be difficult – if not impossible – to phase down fossil fuels and halt global warming, not just in the next four years but also for future US administrations.”
Trump’s election will reinvigorate a debate around US ‘energy independence’ as he renews government support for the oil and gas industry and doubles down on bipartisan progress around the deployment of nuclear technology as well.
Overall, his administration is likely to favour conventional energy resources over emissions-free alternatives, expediting liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and oil-and-gas production licenses while potentially clawing back unspent Inflation Reduction Act funds.
“But the reality is that the ongoing transformation of the global energy system largely transcends Washington’s political cycles,” observes Landon Derentz, Senior Director and Morningstar chair for global energy security at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center.
“The US exit from the Paris Agreement, for example, was a signature feature of Trump’s first-term energy and climate policy and an act that is all but certain to be reinstituted early next year. But around the world, the price of energy and the security of supply tend to outweigh the impact of US engagement in multilateral fora, hinting at why deployment of solar and wind energy in the US grew by 66% over the course of Trump’s first term.”
One exception will be Trump’s use of tariffs to boost US manufacturing and foster job growth.
“Trump-era tariffs focused on Chinese electric vehicles and solar technologies have endured throughout Biden’s presidency,” added Derentz. “With the interplay of climate and trade policy only growing closer since Trump’s first term, it’s all but inevitable that his second administration will go further in deploying trade-related tools to strengthen US energy dominance. How the world – in particular China – reacts will be critical to the scale and pace of the energy transition.”
According to data from Harvard and Columbia universities, the Trump administration has reversed, revoked or is in the process of rolling back 100 significant environmental regulations.
These include replacing the Obama-era emissions rules for power plants and vehicles; weakening protections for more than half of the US’s wetlands; and withdrawing the legal justification for restricting mercury emissions from power plants.
However, according to research from Yale University, backing for funding into renewable energy sources finds support from both Democrat and Republican voters, another reason why Trump may tread carefully in the new year.
