Renewables are on course to meet almost half of global electricity demand by the end of this decade – but are still failing to meet the tripling capacity target, according to an IEA report.
Despite continuing to see ‘massive growth’, the report forecasts renewables’ global capacity will reach 2.7 times its 2022 level by 2030. The goal was set by nearly 200 governments at COP28 in Dubai.
Fully meeting the tripling target is ‘entirely possible if governments take near-term opportunities for action,’ the IEA states.
The Renewables 2024 report finds that the world is set to add more than 5,500 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable energy capacity between 2024 and 2030 – almost three times the increase seen between 2017 and 2023.
While China is adding the biggest volumes of renewables, India is growing at the fastest rate among major economies.
Renewable power capacity is expected to surge over the rest of this decade, with global additions on course to roughly equal the current power capacity of China, the European Union, India and the US combined.
Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director, said renewables are moving faster than national governments can set targets for.
“This is mainly driven not just by efforts to lower emissions or boost energy security – it’s increasingly because renewables today offer the cheapest option to add new power plants in almost all countries around the world,” he said.
The report shows that the growth of renewables, especially solar, will transform electricity systems across the globe this decade.
China is set to account for almost 60% of all renewable capacity installed worldwide between now and 2030, based on current market trends and today’s policy settings by governments.
That would make China home to almost half of the world’s total renewable power capacity by the end of this decade, up from a share of a third in 2010.
In terms of technologies, solar PV alone is forecast to account for a massive 80% of the growth in global renewable capacity between now and 2030 – the result of the construction of new large solar power plants as well as an increase in rooftop solar installations by companies and households.
Despite ongoing challenges, the wind sector is also poised for a recovery, with the rate of expansion doubling between 2024 and 2030, compared with the period between 2017 and 2023. Already, wind and solar PV are the cheapest options to add new electricity generation in almost every country.
As a result of these trends, nearly 70 countries that collectively account for 80% of global renewable power capacity are poised to reach or surpass their current renewable ambitions for 2030.
Global solar manufacturing capacity is expected to surpass 1 100 GW by the end of 2024, more than double projected demand.
While this supply glut, concentrated in China, has supported a decline in module prices – which have more than halved since early 2023 as a result – it also means that many manufacturers are seeing large financial losses.
Producing solar panels in the US costs three times as much as in China, and in India, it is twice as expensive.
“Policymakers should consider how to strike a balance between the additional costs and benefits of local manufacturing, weighing key priorities such as job creation and energy security,” the report states.
