Less than a fifth of the EU’s planned hydrogen production capacity is likely to come online by 2030, unless urgent action is taken to address gaps in policy, funding, and demand, according to new analysis from research-led consultancy Westwood Global Energy Group.
The research finds that only 17% of the EU’s current hydrogen project pipeline is likely to go ahead without further market support. While the bloc has made substantial funding commitments and set ambitious production targets, the report highlights regulatory delays, high costs, and weak demand as key barriers to progress.
By the end of 2024, 23 hydrogen projects across Europe totalling 29.2 GW had already been stalled or cancelled. The UK market faces similar difficulties, with Westwood estimating that between 1% and 24% of its hydrogen pipeline could be delivered by 2030 under current conditions.
Two of the cancelled projects include a 10 GW blue hydrogen facility in Norway, previously backed by Equinor and Shell, and the 1.8 GW DepHYnus project in the UK, which was shelved after failing to secure support in the country’s Hydrogen Allocation Round, which is a UK funding mechanism for low-carbon hydrogen projects.
©Westwood Global Energy Group
“The gap between ambition and reality in Europe’s hydrogen sector is widening,” said Jun Sasamura, Hydrogen Manager at Westwood. “While targets are necessary, they will remain out of reach unless the policy landscape evolves.”
The findings are based on Westwood’s Hydrogen Project Certainty Assessment tool, which tracks project development and assesses delivery likelihood based on market conditions.
Westwood estimates that up to 70% of the pipeline could be delivered in a best-case scenario, assuming stronger policy support, funding, and clearer demand-side measures.
“Delivering 17% of the EU pipeline still represents substantial progress,” added David Linden, Head of Energy Transition at Westwood. “But governments must now act decisively on the three critical areas we’ve identified to ensure continued progress.”
The report comes amid growing pressure on European policymakers to clarify hydrogen’s role in decarbonisation, particularly in sectors like heavy industry and transport. With 2030 targets coming into view, numerous analysts are now warning that a lack of clear market signals could undermine confidence and progress.
