The cost of Net Zero could be cut by £298bn ($371bn) compared to official projections, saving every British household more than £400 ($500) per year, according to new analysis drawing on an AI-assisted computer model used by Whitehall.
By increasing the use of so-called home-grown renewable ‘green gas’ (biogas and biomethane), households could save £415 ($518) over the period to 2050 in addition to £22bn ($27.5bn) in capital and operating costs in the next six years.
The analysis was commissioned by the Anaerobic Digestion and Bioresources Association (ADBA) and carried out by Business Modelling Applications (BMA) using its Decisio whole energy planning system. The model compared the National Energy System Operator’s (NESO) 2024 Pathways to Net Zerowith scenarios that integrate green gas more extensively.
By relying more on green gas, the study projects major reductions in investment requirements for offshore wind (£36bn ($45bn), an 18% reduction) and onshore wind (£10.5bn ($13.1bn), a 36% reduction). Smaller savings in nuclear power, hydrogen production and energy transmission infrastructure were also identified.
The report stresses that green gas provides a cost-effective solution for ensuring energy resilience during periods of low wind and sunlight. Chris Huhne, ADBA Chairman, described biomethane as “the big green battery that can keep us warm and well-lit in dark winters more cheaply than other identified pathways to Net Zero.”
Biomethane’s role in Net Zero
Green gas, produced from organic waste such as food scraps, farm manure, and industrial by-products like whisky mash, is an alternative energy source that has seen rapid growth in the United States and Europe. However, it has yet to be fully explored in official UK energy projections.
“Biomethane is a good substitute for fossil gas and can be easily stored in existing gas grids and storage facilities, like the Rough gas wells in the North Sea,” the report noted. It can also be converted to hydrogen with minimal energy loss, making it a flexible and efficient back-up for renewable energy sources.
Dr Gareth Mottram, ADBA’s policy lead, added: “This analysis shows the value of biomethane as a turn-on, turn-off energy source that can significantly cut the costs of operating the whole energy system. Biomethane is the perfect complement to intermittent renewables like solar and wind.”
A call to action
The report’s findings challenge the current strategy for achieving Net Zero, urging policymakers to consider green gas as a critical component of the energy transition. Huhne called the study “a wake-up call to look at more cost-effective options for Net Zero,” highlighting the potential for green gas to deliver environmental and financial benefits while bolstering the nation’s energy security.
Despite its promise, scaling green gas faces challenges, including limited infrastructure, the need for robust policy frameworks, and investment competition with other renewables. Public and industry awareness of its benefits remains low, while production expansion requires overcoming logistical hurdles.
The analysis outlined the benefits of incorporating green gas into the UK’s energy mix, including year-round availability, cost savings, carbon neutrality, and compatibility with existing infrastructure. These attributes could complement intermittent renewables like wind and solar.
Several European countries have already embraced green gas. Denmark, a long-standing leader in Net Zero innovation, identified the potential of biogas and biomethane early on. The country is home to Nature Energy, Europe’s largest green gas company, recently acquired by energy giant Shell.
The Danes refer to green gas as the “Big Green Battery” because it delivers energy consistently throughout the year, can be easily stored, and provides reliable power during winter demand peaks or windless periods.
“As another northern country with a dark winter, Britain should wake up to the opportunity that green gas offers for our Net Zero future,” added Huhne.
