It’s been a busy week in the Swiss Alps with political and business leaders analysing a broad range of geopolitical and economic trends and developments. Here are five takeaways from the 2025 forum.
Collaborative or competitive?
European leaders struck a collaborative tone when commentating on the new US administration. It’s clear that dialogue will be vital if tariffs are to be avoided. But it’s equally hard to see how it’s going to be reconciled with the US position, particularly as President Trump’s tough talking video address left delegates in no doubt that tariffs will be imposed on non-US-made goods. His comments on Europe specifically – “the EU treats us very unfairly and badly” – means a lot of bridge building will be needed. Time is of the essence; Martina Cheung from S&P Global believes tariffs could be coming as soon as April, if not before (Trump is keen to impose a 10% tariff on China from February), but she also stressed established supply chains don’t change on a whim. It’s sure to be a hot topic in the weeks and months ahead.
Energy split
In the space of a dramatic week, new schisms have appeared. Trump has vowed to “drill, baby, drill” and maximise fossil fuel extraction under quickly issued new orders, while Davos delegates heard that Europe should “stick to its guns” on decarbonisation and clean tech development. The LNG community is revelling in the prospect of projects and business booming under Trump. The energy position is symptomatic of broader geopolitical divides; it’s clear that President Trump’s main – and possibly sole – focus is to drive US growth while Europe’s decarbonisation agenda continues apace, with a new Clean Industrial Deal to be launched in February.
The outlook is especially worrying for hydrogen. On his first day in office, Trump halted further funding from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), which offered production tax credits of up to $3/kg and a combined $7bn of funding for seven hydrogen hubs, respectively. All eyes will be on how much further Trump and Energy Secretary Chris Wright push back on the IRA; a full repeal of the IRA or IIJA would require Congress to pass new legislation nullifying the acts in their entirety. COP30 in Brazil, in November, is already shaping up to be a major showdown. In the words of one Europe commissioner, “If the last five years were rocky, fasten your seat belts.”
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